Re: Theological Attack On Public Schools

[Greg Burton <gburton@sltrib.com>]

   Sorry Dale and Doug, whose response on a different thread called
"ringing defense" alleges this: "Greg Burton was answered well on the
statistical matters by Dale Courtney."

   Just not so. Dale's statistics ring hollow. They are — and I'm not a
Ph.D. in statistics or classics or modernity or relativism or mish-mash —
misleading and bordering on fraud.
   Is anybody out there reading this stuff?
   I apologize up front for the length of this post, but there is so much
hokum hereabouts, it's going to take some heavy lifting to unravel.
   First of all, none of the census information Dale provides has a thing
to do with private versus public school enrollments. The data does examine
populations, which have some indirect correlation. And why the mix of Latah
County and Moscow populations? These two groups are competing for school
students, not sharing them.
   You say Latah County's 17-and under population has increased 14.1
percent in 10 years. What does that have to do with the growth of Moscow's
school age population? A little bit I guess, but it ain't too helpful. My
guess? Growth in towns like Viola — where kids go to the Potlatch School
District, not MSD— could be contributing to a loss of school-age kids in
Moscow.
   But, I don't know for sure because the data Dale provides is woefully
inadequate to intelligently assume such things.
   Now then, Moscow says it is down 357 students in 5 years. Okay, let's
look at that. The only chart you provide that is marginally helpful is the
MSD breakdown of awol students. And even with that, MSD only breaks it down
for Russell School. So, as a subset of MSD, let's look at Russell (where my
wife attended, by the way).

2000-2001 Russell lost 5 and gained 1 from private school        -- a
netloss of 4.
1999-2000              lost 1 and gained
zero                                   -- a net loss of 1
1998-1999              lost zero and gained
zero                              -- no net
1997-1998              gained three and lost
zero                             -- gain of three
1996-1997              lost one and gained
zero                               -- net loss of 1


  So, overall Russell lost a net 3 kids to private school since 1996. Not
exactly throwing them out the cracked windows and into the marble arms of
Logos (where, again by the way, I know some very intelligent and likeable
kids who apparently aren't as pious and pretentious as their teachers. Who
was it that said, bring me the children?). Three kids does not a trend
make.

  Over the same period, Russell gained 57 in-state transfer students and
lost 47 in-state transfer students (net gain of 10). Six home school
students entered Russell, 9 left to be home schooled (net loss of 3). 7
students from charter schools (aren't these public) joined Russell, 8 left.

That's a net loss of one, but because charters are technically public we
could say this was a wash. But, for Dale and Dougs sake, let's count it as
a (net loss of 1) Finally, Russell gained 44 out-of-state transfer students

and lost 75 to out-of-state transfers for a (net loss of 31)

  So, Russell over this period of time lost a net of 28 kids but the
largest impact, by far, was from kids and families moving out of state.
Sounds a lot like the district's explanation, which Dougs and Dale don't
seem to cotton. Hasn't Moscow always been a transient community of college
families who move in and out, probably in proportion to how Washington and
Idaho are funding higher education?

  Let's conclude, then. Dale's statistics tell us nothing about private
versus public enrollments. MSD tells us a little. Let's also revisit my
last post, which is both accurate and informative of the overall national
trend of private versus public enrollments. The chart is in thousands and
shows public school enrollment increasing and private school enrollment
decreasing since 1966. That's a big, significant and true trend. Not some
pithy blather.

                   all schools        public        private
Fall 1966 ....   13,294        11,894          1,400
Fall 1976 ....   15,656         14,314          1,342
Fall 1986 ....   13,669         12,333          1,336
Fall 1996 ....   14,060         12,847          1,213
Fall 2000        14,803         13,537          1,266


  For those who really care about Moscow enrollments, there will soon be a
more significant measure of private and public school enrollments released
by the U.S. Census Bureau, called SF3, for Idaho and Moscow. With this
release, from the long form, you will be able to examine enrollments by
race, gender and type of school for the city, state or even for the
neighborhood block.

  Until then, Dougs and Dale are bellowing falsehoods. Below, is some of
what I could find from earlier census releases. When the more specific
numbers for enrollments are released for Moscow 2000, I will try to be
diligent and pass them along, if somebody there doesn't beat me to it.


Moscow, Idaho School enrollment, 2000
Total - 11,081 (persons 3 years and older)

Nursery school, preschool        246
Kindergarten                              234
Elementary school                   1,448
High School                               783
College or graduate school       8,352


http://censtats.census.gov/data/ID/1601654550.pdf


Moscow Idaho, SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 1990
Total —10,026 (persons 3 years and older)

Preprimary school                        307
Elementary or high school         2,221
Percent in private school             12.7
College                                      7,498


cheers, greg



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