RE: Theological Attack On Public Schools

["Dale Courtney" <dmcourtn@moscow.com>]

Greg wrote: 
>   Secondly, and most important. Both Dale and Doug have this 
> notion of kids fleeing public schools for private schools. 
> Not so. They are either extremely myopic or are perpetuating 
> a fallacy to better their own cause. Moscow may have its own 
> foibles, and its public schools may be losing kids today ( I 
> don't have the figures at hand), but trends come and go. For 
> a more accurate picture of what is happening vis-a-vis public 
> and private education, you'll need to think bigger. Just off 
> the cuff I would guess enrollments are cyclical in nature, 
> based on population, world events, and economics. In the 
> 1990s, when riches flowed, I'm guessing more people used 
> their extra cash to send their kids to private school. You 
> know the routine, bigger SUV, house in the suburbs, kids in a 
> private, prestigious school that gets the neighbors talking. 
> As the economy sours, I'm guessing the reverse will be true.

I'll repost what I said back on May 17th of this year concerning Latah
county:

1.  The census bureau reports that Latah's total population has
increased 14.1% in 10 years
(http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/16/16057.html)

2.  The census bureau reports that Latah's 17-and-under population has
increased 20.3% in 10 years
(http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/16/16057.html)

3.  Moscow's total population increased from 18,519 in 1990 to 21,291 in
2000 (13% in 10 years)
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demographic_profile/Idaho/2
kh16.pdf vs http://venus.census.gov/cdrom/lookup/1021654114)

4.  Moscow's school-aged children make up 11.2% of the total population
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demographic_profile/Idaho/2
kh16.pdf)

5.  MSD reports that they are down 357 students (15.1%) in 5 years
(http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/movement.pdf and
http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/Enrollment_11-02-01.
pdf)

Now, you don't have to have a PhD in statistics to see that the books
don't balance. *All* the stats show that the overall population and the
school-aged population is up anywhere from 13%-20% and that school
enrollment is down 15%

Not only has there been an exodus from the government schools, there's
been a *mass exodus*. Well, let me rephrase that -- there should have
been a mass *entrance* (up ~15% instead of down 15%).

MSD alleges that the cause is families with kids leaving. That's
nonsense. Nothing supports that allegation.

Rather, the question is why parents are not enrolling them to begin
with. 

I've said my statistical peace. We'll wait until the school enrollment
data is in (http://www.census.gov/census2000/futurereleases.html), then
there'll be no more guess work.

Dale