Re: census figures

["Troy Merrill" <troy1@moscow.com>]

If I read the numbers right the total increase in school age children was
2,783 and the total increase in children in school - both public and
private - was  242 (27 + 215). That is less than 10% of the increase. It
seems to me the important question is what happened to the other 90%?

Troy Merrill


----- Original Message -----
From: "Sunil Ramalingam" <sunilramalingam@hotmail.com>
To: <dmcourtn@moscow.com>; <gburton@sltrib.com>; <vision2020@moscow.com>
Cc: <jwenders@uidaho.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 12:04 PM
Subject: RE: census figures


> My question is, "How much of the increase at private schools can be
> attributed to people moving to Moscow to place their kids at Logos? (or
> other private schools?)"  I know a family with six kids who moved here for
> that reason; prior to that, they homeschooled.  I don't want to
extrapolate
> from that example, but I am curious about it.  Certainly if people are
drawn
> here for that reason, we can't say that they are 'bailing out' of the
public
> system, since they were never part of the Moscow public school system.
>
> Curiously yours,
>
> Sunil
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Dale Courtney" <dmcourtn@moscow.com>
> >To: "'Greg Burton'" <gburton@sltrib.com>, <vision2020@moscow.com>
> >CC: "'John T. Wenders'" <jwenders@uidaho.edu>
> >Subject: RE: census figures
> >Date: Wed, 4 Sep 2002 11:01:30 -0700
> >
> >Greg,
> >
> >You could at least have given me a heads-up so that I could have
> >snookered you to the stats!  :-)
> >
> > >   What the numbers do reveal is that Moscow's school age
> > > population (3 and older) grew by 2,783 over the past decade.
> > > Over the same period, K-12 public ed grew by 27 students and
> > > K-12 private ed grew by 215. (the rest are going to preschool
> > > or college)
> > >    In 1990 private-school students made up 12.7 percent of
> > > Moscow's total K-12 enrollment. In 2000, they made up 20 percent.
> > >
> > >   Why?
> > >    I will leave that to the pundits.
> >
> >You aren't saying that I was right about my stats, are you?  That
> >mathematics degree has paid off royally!  :)
> >
> >I predicted 15% (conservatively) in private schools. The number is
> >actually 20 percent.
> >
> >BTW, this should have been a no-brainer to everyone. You cannot have the
> >population of kids go up by 20+ percent and the MSD numbers go down by
> >15+ percent and not have the kids going somewhere else.
> >
> >Now comes the slam -- if the trend continues, then by 2015 MSD students
> >will be in the minority and others (private, homeschool, co-op, etc)
> >will be in the majority. NB: My assumption is based not on linear
> >changes in the number of students. Everything suggests that the rate of
> >bailout is not linear but something much, much greater (exponential?).
> >
> >I'm just waiting to hear what the MSD educrat pundits are going to say.
> >Prediction: we need more money to educate fewer kids.
> >
> >Sigh...
> >
> >Dale Courtney
> >Moscow, Idaho
> >
> >Free to be me, free to be you (as long as you agree with me...)
>
>
>
>
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