Re: census figures

[Greg Burton <gburton@sltrib.com>]

Be careful, the 2,783 figure is the total growth in school age population,
which the census counts as everyone over age 3. The other numbers are just the
K-12 increases. So, the rest of the 2,783 are either too young or too old for
elementary and secondary education.

Troy Merrill wrote:

> If I read the numbers right the total increase in school age children was
> 2,783 and the total increase in children in school - both public and
> private - was  242 (27 + 215). That is less than 10% of the increase. It
> seems to me the important question is what happened to the other 90%?
>
> Troy Merrill
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Sunil Ramalingam" <sunilramalingam@hotmail.com>
> To: <dmcourtn@moscow.com>; <gburton@sltrib.com>; <vision2020@moscow.com>
> Cc: <jwenders@uidaho.edu>
> Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 12:04 PM
> Subject: RE: census figures
>
> > My question is, "How much of the increase at private schools can be
> > attributed to people moving to Moscow to place their kids at Logos? (or
> > other private schools?)"  I know a family with six kids who moved here for
> > that reason; prior to that, they homeschooled.  I don't want to
> extrapolate
> > from that example, but I am curious about it.  Certainly if people are
> drawn
> > here for that reason, we can't say that they are 'bailing out' of the
> public
> > system, since they were never part of the Moscow public school system.
> >
> > Curiously yours,
> >
> > Sunil
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >From: "Dale Courtney" <dmcourtn@moscow.com>
> > >To: "'Greg Burton'" <gburton@sltrib.com>, <vision2020@moscow.com>
> > >CC: "'John T. Wenders'" <jwenders@uidaho.edu>
> > >Subject: RE: census figures
> > >Date: Wed, 4 Sep 2002 11:01:30 -0700
> > >
> > >Greg,
> > >
> > >You could at least have given me a heads-up so that I could have
> > >snookered you to the stats!  :-)
> > >
> > > >   What the numbers do reveal is that Moscow's school age
> > > > population (3 and older) grew by 2,783 over the past decade.
> > > > Over the same period, K-12 public ed grew by 27 students and
> > > > K-12 private ed grew by 215. (the rest are going to preschool
> > > > or college)
> > > >    In 1990 private-school students made up 12.7 percent of
> > > > Moscow's total K-12 enrollment. In 2000, they made up 20 percent.
> > > >
> > > >   Why?
> > > >    I will leave that to the pundits.
> > >
> > >You aren't saying that I was right about my stats, are you?  That
> > >mathematics degree has paid off royally!  :)
> > >
> > >I predicted 15% (conservatively) in private schools. The number is
> > >actually 20 percent.
> > >
> > >BTW, this should have been a no-brainer to everyone. You cannot have the
> > >population of kids go up by 20+ percent and the MSD numbers go down by
> > >15+ percent and not have the kids going somewhere else.
> > >
> > >Now comes the slam -- if the trend continues, then by 2015 MSD students
> > >will be in the minority and others (private, homeschool, co-op, etc)
> > >will be in the majority. NB: My assumption is based not on linear
> > >changes in the number of students. Everything suggests that the rate of
> > >bailout is not linear but something much, much greater (exponential?).
> > >
> > >I'm just waiting to hear what the MSD educrat pundits are going to say.
> > >Prediction: we need more money to educate fewer kids.
> > >
> > >Sigh...
> > >
> > >Dale Courtney
> > >Moscow, Idaho
> > >
> > >Free to be me, free to be you (as long as you agree with me...)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
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> >
> >
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