RE: Theological Attack On Public Schools--Statistical an

["Mike Curley" <curley@turbonet.com>]

Mr. Courtney:
The statistics you cite do not, of necessity or inexorable
logic, lead to the conclusion you posit.  Somewhere within
your statements and stats is the foundation of a syllogism
that would fall apart even upon rudimentary analysis. The
statements assume that all the "original" 100% (1990
students) of school district enrollees are still and town
and that some (mass) of them "fled" the public schools.  
We
know that's not the case because many have graduated 
and
because for those who do leave before graduation the 
school
district has to send their records to the new school.  I
don't have the statistic at hand, but the district did
present the evidence (this year) that the vast majority of
students (over about the past 5 years) who left the district
schools moved out of the city (and their new district made
an official request for the records).  Some changed to
charter schools--but they, too, are public schools (we know
who those students are because the charters requested 
copies
of their records).  Some smaller percentage may have
switched to home schooling (they don't usually request the
records so the district is less certain), and a few switched
to a religiously-affiliated or (other)  private school.
Additionally, the mere addition of school-aged children to
the community does not necessarily mean that all (or 
most)
made a conscious choice between public and private 
schools. 
If I had just moved to Moscow my children would have 
been
placed in the public schools.  If you had just moved to
Moscow, it is apparent that your children would not be in
public school.  It would not be statistically accurate to
claim that you or your children were part of the mass 
exodus
(or failure of mass enrollment increase) you proclaim. No
doubt some Moscow students and families have "left" the
public schools over the past 10 years for a non-public
alternative.  And it may be, as some of your previous posts
say, that the reason for their leaving is that Moscow public
schools are deficient and not doing their job.   Or not. My
response here is simply to say that it will require a more
complete factual analysis of the statistics you present
before one can use them to support either thesis. 
Mike Curley



On 27 Aug 02, at 21:34, Dale Courtney wrote:

Date forwarded: 	Tue, 27 Aug 2002 21:34:25 -0700 (PDT)
From:           	"Dale Courtney" 
<dmcourtn@moscow.com>
To:             	<vision2020@moscow.com>
Subject:        	RE: Theological Attack On Public Schools
Date sent:      	Tue, 27 Aug 2002 21:34:37 -0700 Forwarded
by:   	vision2020@moscow.com

Greg wrote: 
>   Secondly, and most important. Both Dale and Doug have
>   this 
> notion of kids fleeing public schools for private schools.
> Not so. They are either extremely myopic or are
> perpetuating a fallacy to better their own cause. Moscow
> may have its own foibles, and its public schools may be
> losing kids today ( I don't have the figures at hand), but
> trends come and go. For a more accurate picture of what is
> happening vis-a-vis public and private education, you'll
> need to think bigger. Just off the cuff I would guess
> enrollments are cyclical in nature, based on population,
> world events, and economics. In the 1990s, when riches
> flowed, I'm guessing more people used their extra cash to
> send their kids to private school. You know the routine,
> bigger SUV, house in the suburbs, kids in a private,
> prestigious school that gets the neighbors talking. As the
> economy sours, I'm guessing the reverse will be true.

I'll repost what I said back on May 17th of this year
concerning Latah county:

1.  The census bureau reports that Latah's total population
has increased 14.1% in 10 years
(http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/16/16057.html)

2.  The census bureau reports that Latah's 17-and-under
population has increased 20.3% in 10 years
(http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/16/16057.html)

3.  Moscow's total population increased from 18,519 in 1990
to 21,291 in 2000 (13% in 10 years)
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demograp
hic_pro file/Idaho/2 kh16.pdf vs
http://venus.census.gov/cdrom/lookup/1021654114)

4.  Moscow's school-aged children make up 11.2% of the total
population
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demograp
hic_pro file/Idaho/2 kh16.pdf)

5.  MSD reports that they are down 357 students (15.1%) in 5
years
(http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/mov
emen t.pdf and
http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/Enroll
me nt_11-02-01. pdf)

Now, you don't have to have a PhD in statistics to see that
the books don't balance. *All* the stats show that the
overall population and the school-aged population is up
anywhere from 13%-20% and that school enrollment is down 15%

Not only has there been an exodus from the government
schools, there's been a *mass exodus*. Well, let me 
rephrase
that -- there should have been a mass *entrance* (up 
~15%
instead of down 15%).

MSD alleges that the cause is families with kids leaving.
That's nonsense. Nothing supports that allegation.

Rather, the question is why parents are not enrolling them
to begin with. 

I've said my statistical peace. We'll wait until the school
enrollment data is in
(http://www.census.gov/census2000/futurereleases.html), then
there'll be no more guess work.

Dale

------- End of forwarded message -------