(Fwd) RE: Theol. Attack P S--Statistical analysis

["Mike Curley" <curley@turbonet.com>]

Mr. Courtney:
The statistics you cite do not, of necessity or inexorable
logic, lead to the conclusion you posit.  Somewhere within
your statements and stats is the foundation of a syllogism
that would fall apart even upon rudimentary analysis. The
statements assume that all the "original" 100% (1990
students) of school district enrollees are still and town
and that some (mass) of them "fled" the public schools.  
We know that's not the case because many have 
graduated and because for those who do leave before 
graduation the school district has to send their records to 
the new school.  I don't have the statistic at hand, but the 
district did present the evidence (this year) that the vast 
majority of students (over about the past 5 years) who left 
the district schools moved out of the city (and their new 
district made an official request for the records).  Some 
changed to charter schools--but they, too, are public 
schools (we know who those students are because the 
charters requested copies of their records).  Some smaller 
percentage may have switched to home schooling (they 
don't usually request the records so the district is less 
certain), and a few switched to a religiously-affiliated or 
(other)  private school.
Additionally, the mere addition of school-aged children to
the community does not necessarily mean that all (or 
most) made a conscious choice between public and 
private schools.
If I had just moved to Moscow my children would have 
been placed in the public schools.  If you had just moved to
Moscow, it is apparent that your children would not be in
public school.  It would not be statistically accurate to
claim that you or your children were part of the mass 
exodus (or failure of mass enrollment increase) you 
proclaim. No doubt some Moscow students and families 
have "left" the public schools over the past 10 years for a 
non-public alternative.  And it may be, as some of your 
previous posts say, that the reason for their leaving is that 
Moscow public schools are deficient and not doing their 
job.   Or not. My response here is simply to say that it will 
require a more complete factual analysis of the statistics 
you present before one can use them to support either 
thesis. 
Mike Curley