vision2020
Re: The Truth!
At 10:14 PM 2/12/2001 -0800, Travis & Julie Tonn wrote:
>Why can't we wise up as a society and learn from the past?
It looks like this whole discussion is taking place under the assumption
that history is linear, that things have a tendency to get better
(optimistic) or worse (pessimistic), or even chaotic (history is a
struggle, where any outcome is achievable). Socrates, or one of his
colleagues, is also on the record talking about how the world is going to
hell in a hand basket; youth has no respect for elders, etc. If the world
had gone steadily worse since then, the human race would have long ceased
to exist.
Yet, there is another way of analyzing history, and that is to view history
as cyclical. This view is predominant in China, but there are many
analyses of Western history using this method. The most recent is a book
called "The Fourth Turning" by Stauss & Howe (Web site at
http://www.fourthturning.com/). Basically, a generation lasts about 20-25
years, and there are four generational archetypes that cycle through
history in sequence. So the Heroes of World War II had one type of
attitude, but their children were not carbon copies, but the "Artists" of
the 1960s who had a whole different kind of attitude and who influenced
American history as decisively as their parents, but in a radically
different way. Children of the Artists have their own archetype
("Prophet"), and if you are a child of the '60's, you know that you've
changed your slogan from "don't trust any one over 30" to "don't trust any
one UNDER 30." Our children are not our mirror images; why would we expect
them to be? The generation to follow the Prophets are characterized by
Strauss and Howe as Nomads. The names are somewhat contrived; the point is
that there is a 4-phase cycle that runs through history, and the book makes
a very strong argument that these cycles are very regular, and these
generational types arise predictably and influence our culture and history
as predicably.
What does this have to do with the posting "The Truth!"? There is much
truth to the original posting, but it overlooks the point that grandpa's
generation was part of a trend, for good or bad, and so are current events
and attitudes. Things will swing back again. Strauss and Howe predict
that by 2005, we will enter a Crisis, the type of period in which the Hero
generation is born. While there is no telling what kind of crisis will
arise, the generation that deals with it will be just as sacrificing,
obedient, and proud as the GI's who fought the Second World War.
I think it is also necessary to point out that "The Truth!" is already
losing its relevance as a commentary on society; it is a much better
commentary on the situation of 5-10 years ago. But (as Strauss & Howe
point out), the signs of societal "decay" are receding. Teenage pregnancy
is declining, as are rates of divorce, violent crime, drug use, and various
forms of malaise that have affected our society. Marriage is getting more
popular, and women are increasingly likely to stay at home and raise their
children than be part of a two-income latch-key family or a single-parent
household. Please note that I am not placing value judgements on this; all
I am saying is that the pendulum is swinging in the other direction.
Nostalgia is sweet, but any psychologist will tell you that memories become
fonder as they get more distant. That is another issue at play here.
Bob Hoffmann
846 Mabelle St.
Moscow, ID 83843
Tel: 208 883-0642
Fax: 877 495-2279
Back to TOC