RE: census figures

["Dale Courtney" <dmcourtn@moscow.com>]

Greg,

You could at least have given me a heads-up so that I could have
snookered you to the stats!  :-)

>   What the numbers do reveal is that Moscow's school age 
> population (3 and older) grew by 2,783 over the past decade. 
> Over the same period, K-12 public ed grew by 27 students and 
> K-12 private ed grew by 215. (the rest are going to preschool 
> or college)
>    In 1990 private-school students made up 12.7 percent of 
> Moscow's total K-12 enrollment. In 2000, they made up 20 percent.
> 
>   Why?
>    I will leave that to the pundits.

You aren't saying that I was right about my stats, are you?  That
mathematics degree has paid off royally!  :)

I predicted 15% (conservatively) in private schools. The number is
actually 20 percent. 

BTW, this should have been a no-brainer to everyone. You cannot have the
population of kids go up by 20+ percent and the MSD numbers go down by
15+ percent and not have the kids going somewhere else.

Now comes the slam -- if the trend continues, then by 2015 MSD students
will be in the minority and others (private, homeschool, co-op, etc)
will be in the majority. NB: My assumption is based not on linear
changes in the number of students. Everything suggests that the rate of
bailout is not linear but something much, much greater (exponential?). 

I'm just waiting to hear what the MSD educrat pundits are going to say.
Prediction: we need more money to educate fewer kids.

Sigh...

Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho

Free to be me, free to be you (as long as you agree with me...)