Re: Kevorkian Economics- long -- Stuck using chemicals

[David Nelson <dnelson@moscow.com>]

>With the current price of grain, you cannot meet your expenses
>(seed, equipment, fuel, wages, and especially property taxes) on
>52 bushels per acre.
>
>-Jory

I think you missed the point Jory,

If a farmer doesn't apply chemicals (and I am not in favor of this,  I am just curious) and saves the $100/acre he was using to raise his yield from 52 bushel/acre to 63 bushels/acre,  he makes more money.  He may not turn a profit but he is closer.

Case 1:  Modern Agriculture with Chemical Input
63 bushels / acre * $3.00/bushel  = $ 189 / acre  
Chemicals:                        $ 100/acre
NET before other expenses         $89/acre

Case 2  1950-1955 Palouse farm but with current prices
52 bushels / acre * $3.00 / bushel      =  $156
Chemicals                         $0 /acre
Net before other expenses         $156/acre     

I know if I was a farmer I wouldn't spray if it cost me money,  so what is missing from the analysis that convinces farmers to spray ?  I know several things but was curious what other factors might happen. 

One major factor that is not accounted for is that in the 50's, the farming around here had a 2 year rotation where one year was either summer fallow or a green manure crop.  Chemicals replace that year of no income.  If you look at a 6 year net profit assuming 0 profit on the off year than the old way is roughly $468/acre vs the Modern way is $412.    That closer too reality but we must be missing something else as well or ....
 
Case 1 Modern Agriculture:
Year/crop               Net Profit
1/F Wheat               $67 (say 75% of a fall crop)
2/ Peas/Lentils         $50 /acre (i know its lower but how much)
3/ S Wheat              $89
4/F Wheat               $67 (say 75% of a fall crop)
5/ Peas/Lentils         $50 /acre (i know its lower but how much)
6/ S Wheat              $89
6 Year Net Income before other expenses:  $412/acre

Case 2  1950-1955 Palouse farm but with current prices
Year/Crop               Net Profit
1/ Fall Wheat           $156/acre       
2/Summer fallow 0
3/ Fall Wheat           $156/acre       
4/Summer fallow 0
5/ Fall Wheat           $156/acre       
6/Summer fallow 0       
6 Year Net Income  before other expenses:       $468/acre

> In the six year period from 1950-1955, before
>chemical inputs were applied to the Palouse farmground, the
>average yield per/acre of wheat in Latah County was 52 bushels. 
>>From 1990-1996, with more than $100 per/acre of additional
>chemical input (fertilizers, pesticides, application, and
>management cost) the average yield per/acre for wheat was 63
>bushels.  Basically, the increased prductivity costs $9.00 per
>additional bushel ($100/11 bushell increase) to recieve $3.35 a
>bushel on the open market (low price because of supply issues).At 12:10 PM 12/15/99 -0800, you wrote:
>Hi David,
>

>
>> Why are we stuck.  Why not just make an economic decision and not apply the
>> chemicals.  Would you not get the pre chemical era yields of 52
>bushels/acre ?
>> Has something changed in the soil?  Are the crop failure risks bigger ? 
>>
>> David Nelson 
>
>
>Jory Shelton
>PC Network Specialist
>College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Range Sciences
>University of Idaho

David Nelson
Nelson & Roseme, Inc.
Phone 208 883-7699
FAX   208 882-8143
Email dnelson@dnai.com