RE: census figures

["Dale Courtney" <dmcourtn@moscow.com>]

Title: Message

Melynda writes:
> It would seem logical to rather say "we have no reason to
> believe that this
> trend *won't* continue" since you agree that it is a "trend".
>
> It would perhaps be most accurate to say that we have no
> reason to draw any
> conclusion without substantially more evidence.  Your bias
> and mine just
> about balance each other out, wouldn't you say?

No.

I have 20 years of statistics to back me up. You have "faith" and "hope" that you are correct. If I were to pull that on this list, I'd be crucified.

> Homeschooling has increased as laws governing it have relaxed
> and as the
> internet has made support and opportunities more widely
> available.  There
> are certainly many homeschooling families in Moscow.  But
> homeschooling
> isn't necessarily forever: the average duration of homeschool
> is estimated
> at between 2 and 5 years.
> http://www.ed.gov/offices/OERI/SAI/homeschool/homeschoolers.pdf
> Some of those kids may go to public school, others to private school.

You are correct -- but only so far as you go. These numbers reflect who is homeschooling *at that point in time*. The numbers you cite show that students have switched in the past (and will likely do so in the future).

You need to reread page 11 of your PDF file: "The general size and direction of the homeschooling movement is beyond doubt."

If the Department of Education recognizes the size and direction of homeschooling (*not a blip*), why don't you?

> Any number of factors will influence *when* children are
> homeschooled--are
> there more first-graders?  junior-high aged? Those reasons
> have implications
> for public policy decisions, too. In Moscow, we have many
> dual-enrollment
> students--are they calculated as percentages of a public
> school student?

Significantly more are homeschooled through junior high school. There are many reasons for that (reasons I've anecdotally heard: most parents are not equipped to teach algebra II, physics, and chemistry; some want a diploma from a named school so the kids can be certain to get into college; burnout; etc)

> Just a voice crying out in the wilderness for more information,

You've got it! Below is the statistics for Latah county. Everyone can review them for himself.

Tim Kincade asked once for the reasons for parents pulling out of the government schools. Here's the reasons given to the Education Department. Number 1 reason -- can get a better education at home. Given how much money we spend on government education, I find it a sorry statement that people (poor people!) can out of pocket provide better education at home.

Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho
Free to be me, free to be you (as long as you agree with me...)

Census Bureau Data for Geographic Area: Latah County, Idaho

Subject	Number	Percent	Percent of age group enrolled in school
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND TYPE OF SCHOOL
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	14,797	100.0	(X)
Nursery school, preschool	473	3.2	(X)
Public	242	1.6	(X)
Kindergarten	417	2.8	(X)
Public	347	2.3	(X)
Elementary: grade 1 to 4	1,703	11.5	(X)
Public	1,364	9.2	(X)
Elementary: grade 5 to 8	1,441	9.7	(X)
Public	1,291	8.7	(X)
High school: grade 9 to 12	1,592	10.8	(X)
Public	1,411	9.5	(X)
College, undergraduate	7,495	50.7	(X)
Public	7,337	49.6	(X)
Graduate, professional school	1,676	11.3	(X)
Public	1,549	10.5	(X)
Population 3 years and over enrolled in school	14,797	100.0	43.8
3 and 4 years	338	2.3	43.3
5 to 14 years	3,809	25.7	97.2
15 to 17 years	1,219	8.2	96.4
18 and 19 years	2,357	15.9	90.4
20 to 24 years	4,376	29.6	76.0
25 to 34 years	1,867	12.6	36.4
35 years and over	831	5.6	5.8
Population 18 to 24 years	8,364	100.0	(X)
High school graduates	8,062	96.4	(X)
Enrolled in college or graduate school	6,508	77.8	(X)
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Population 16 to 19 years	3,480	100.0	(X)
Enrolled in school	3,189	91.6	(X)
Employed civilian	1,208	34.7	(X)
Unemployed	368	10.6	(X)
Not in labor force	1,595	45.8	(X)
Not enrolled in school	291	8.4	(X)
High school graduate	241	6.9	(X)
Employed civilian	185	5.3	(X)
Unemployed	17	0.5	(X)
Not in labor force	39	1.1	(X)
Not high school graduate	50	1.4	(X)
Employed civilian	42	1.2	(X)
Unemployed	3	0.1	(X)
Not in labor force	5	0.1	(X)

 

(X) Not applicable.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 3, Matrices P36, P38, PCT23, PCT24, and PCT25