Palm Beach County voting

[Brian Dennis <brian@uidaho.edu>]

Visionaries,

Analyses of the voting patterns in Florida leave little doubt that the
Palm Beach County, FL, were not "real" (that is, reflecting the voter's
preferences), but were rather an artifact of the flawed ballot
design.  See:                

http://madison.hss.cmu.edu

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~cfox/Bio/election2000note.pdf

Apparently, the premature projection Tuesday night by the networks that
Florida would go for Gore happened in part because of voters' responses in
exit polls in this county.  Large numbers of respondents thought they had
voted for Gore.

It is now indisputable that this Florida county botched their election
process.  The spin and smoke on this point being put forth by Bush
campaign officials does no credit to a future Bush administration.

The question now is:  what to do about it?  That question will be
decided by the State of Florida, ultimately by the Florida courts.  The
state is responsible for for insuring that the votes of its citizens are
represented in the national elections.   Some possible scenarios:

      (1)  Courts uphold the results as counted;  (ignorance of
           the ballot is no excuse, etc.)

      (2)  Courts invalidate Florida results (electors not certified & 
           Electoral College votes on Dec. 18 without Florida)

      (3)  Courts order a revote of those who cast votes in Palm Beach
           County 

Other scenarios might be possible.  The main thing is, barring any serious
evidence of civil rights violations or other Federal violations in polling
practices, it's Florida's problem, just like a botched poll in Idaho would
be Idaho's problem.  There is no "constitutional crisis";  Florida just
has to get its act together by Dec. 18.

Note that if Florida goes for Bush, and if Oregon & New Mexico end up with
Gore, then Bush wins by just 2 electoral votes.  *Any* state, even a
"threefer", could then have made the difference.  Clearly, the polling
practices of all the states must be defensible and able to withstand tough
scrutiny.  In this regard, threatened actions by Bush campaign officials
to push for recounts in other close states should actually be welcomed.


Brian Dennis
Professor of Wildlife and Statistics 
University of Idaho