Let me be more explicit about the type of information
that should be demanded before reaching any sort of conclusion
about the proposed ordinance to change the lot partitioning
rules. You need an accurate information as described below to
reach an informed decision.
Current Ord. Proposed Ord.
A. Current Number of Parcels
in Latah Co. (1996) ? ?
B. Number of Parcels
if all landowners exercised
their full partitioning rights ? ?
C. Maximum Growth Rate in Parcels
(B - A / A) ? ?
D. Annualized maximum growth rate
(C / 10 )
The growth rate could then be annualized and compared for various
planning horizons. This is very baseline information and is
necessary to estimate the potential impact of the ordinance change.
This information does not require *any* conjecture as to who will
split their land, population shifts, and demand for lots in
rural zone. It is assumed that all landowners will
exercise their rights to the fullest extent allowed by the ordinance.
As a policymaker, would you make a decision without knowing the
best/worst case scenario?
This decision demands that
potential growth rates be projected for each scenario.
(My hypothesis--I suspect that
if this analysis were done accurately and in earnest,the existing
ordinance would accomodate an annualized growth rate in excess of
2% over a 10 year period. The proposed ordinance would
provide, all other things being equal, a growth rate
considerably higher than the existing ordinance).
Until these figures are calculated, everyone is
flying blind. Too burdensome to calculate you say?
How can that be? The proposed ordinance will require
the county to track each and every rural parcel. Furthermore,
there will be overlays with soil types. If the county does
not have the information system in place
now to derive these figures, what confidence would one
have that such a system would be in place to actually
monitor compliance with the proposed ordinance?
Forgetting my growth bias for a moment...I would suggest
that unless things have changed dramatically in the planning
department, the proposed ordinance could not be implemented
in a fair and impartial manner without a more sophisticated
information system that includes GIS.
-- Greg Brown (gregb@siu.edu) Assistant Professor,Dept. of Forestry Southern Illinois University Carbondale, IL 62901-4411 (618) 453-7465 FAX: (618) 453-7475