recent population trends year to year at the ui have been quite flat.
especially in last two years.... very very minor gains... nearly statistically
insignificant.
most of the "student" housing you refer to (all of the cheezy apartments
on morton and south of town) represent a shift rather than a growth.
students are coming out of basement holes, garage apartments, triple
loaded situations, etc and into these new apartment blocks.
ui residence hall occupancy rates have declined significantly in the last
couple years... again a further shift in population from the halls to the
new options available represented by the new construction.
bottom line... most of the apartment building has released a population
strapped by an extremely tight market into the residence halls, and into
fairly non-desirable options in the private market. the new construction
(as barrack-like as it may be) is, at least, new, and by comparison,
spacious. you aren't seeing a current growth in student population... you
are seeing a shift in living options. as folks move out of the residence
halls and garage apartments, the halls and garages aren't being
backfilled.
the rental market, while not wide open, isn't nearly as tight as it was.
as evidence, nearly all of the occupants (i'll guess 90%... it is about as
unscientific as a guess you will ever see) who first filled south hill vista
were students who had at least one year in at the ui when they moved
in.
how many new single family houses have been completed in moscow in
the last few years? does anybody know? (within city limits) my guess
is approximately 75 (10 here, 12 there, 10 up here... etc). assume 3
occupants each, and realize that ui student growth in each of the last
two years has been about 110/year, and you have a real quick case for
an assumption of approx 400 to 500 new residents in the last few
years....
>>> Joel Hamilton <hamilton@uidaho.edu> 12/12/95 09:20am >>>
I too find the reported population changes very difficult to believe.
While I am inclined to believe that these population estimates are in error,
there are some arguments that might support them:
1. I understand that school enrollment has also been quite stable. Don't
any of these people we think ar moving in have children? Or could this
be explained away because are we moving into a "baby bust" part of
the population cycle?
2. A few years ago, when housing was so tight in Moscow, there was
some evidence household size was increasing, compared to a long-term
down trend. More people were apparently squeezing into what housing
was available. Now, one could hypothesize that people are again
spreading out -- the same number of people occupying more housing
units.
Anybody have any ideas of data one could look at to test these kinds of
hypotheses?
Joel Hamilton
At 07:50 AM 12/12/95, David Peckham wrote:
>
>Re: the recent posting of population figures for idaho cities, showing
>that moscow grew by 400 residents between 1990 and 1994. source I
think >was EDC
>
>I can't >figure out how moscow could have possibly grown by only
400 residents >since 1990, with the huge new UI family housing,
Deerfield addition, >Moser's several, Vista, out Orchard adn Trail,
appartments south of >Lauder, appts on Morton, appts next to safeway,
etc.
>
>Can anyone offer an explanation or defense of this virtual no-growth
>statistic?
>
>dave peckham
>
>